Political analyst Aleksandar Pavić told RTRS that what he described as growing anti-Serb hostility in Sarajevo is part of a continued effort to intimidate Serbs throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina.
“Political Sarajevo simply refuses to abandon this approach because it is the driving force behind everything that is happening. They have been creating an anti-Serb atmosphere throughout BiH since the beginning of Yugoslavia’s breakup. Even before the war broke out, they were the ones raising tensions, and they have never stopped,” Pavić claimed.
Election results have increased political tensions, Pavić claims
According to Pavić, Sarajevo’s political leadership has difficulty accepting the existence of Republika Srpska, the equality of the three constituent peoples and, particularly, the results of the recent general elections.
He argued that the consolidation of political forces in Republika Srpska has further increased frustrations among political circles in Sarajevo.
“There is a clear winner in Republika Srpska, and the winners are those who firmly defend Republika Srpska and will not allow political Sarajevo to undermine it. These frustrations will now become visible in various ways, but the political elite in Sarajevo bears the main responsibility for what is happening,” Pavić said.
He warned that further political radicalization could lead to additional incidents similar to the recent puncturing of tires on vehicles with Belgrade registration plates in Sarajevo.
Pavić linked the broader political situation to changes in Croat representation in the Presidency of BiH.
“Frustration will increase further because, after a long time, Croats have obtained their own representative in the Presidency of BiH. It will no longer be possible to impose political decisions on them as was done when they had what I consider a false representative, Željko Komšić,” he stated.
He suggested that closer political cooperation between Serb and Croat representatives could significantly alter the balance of power in BiH.
“Serbs and Croats could eventually reach an agreement, and Croats could recognize that their interests are not threatened by Serbs. In that case, Sarajevo would become even more alarmed,” Pavić argued.
He accused certain political actors of resorting to inflammatory rhetoric, political manipulation and the demonization of opponents rather than constructive dialogue.
Calls for a return to the original Dayton Agreement
Pavić maintained that political tensions would persist until Sarajevo’s political leadership fully accepted BiH as a country of three equal constituent peoples.
He argued that returning to the original provisions of the Dayton Peace Agreement was the only viable solution.
According to Pavić, the latest elections have further stabilized Republika Srpska and removed uncertainty over its political leadership.
“There is no longer any doubt about the main winner. It is SNSD and the entire governing coalition,” he said.
He singled out Milorad Dodik, claiming that the SNSD leader had successfully overcome political pressure from the High Representative and U.S. sanctions.
Pavić also argued that the political position of Croats in BiH had improved, which he believes would make it more difficult for Sarajevo-based parties to pursue policies without broader agreement.
Pavić warns of political instability within the Federation of BiH
Discussing political divisions within the Federation of BiH, Pavić described competition among Bosniak political parties as a significant source of instability.
“The biggest problem now lies in the Bosniak-majority part of the Federation, where political groups are deeply divided, face intense internal competition and blame one another for what has happened,” he said.
He suggested that such political disputes could have consequences beyond Bosniak-majority areas.
However, Pavić expressed confidence that Republika Srpska and Croat political representatives would now be better positioned to resist what he described as attempts to spread instability.
Changing international relations and Western influence
Pavić also addressed the international dimension of political developments in BiH, claiming that Sarajevo’s political leadership had lost the influence it previously enjoyed in the White House.
He nevertheless warned that certain political centers in Europe and the United States could increase their support for Sarajevo-based political actors.
“What should concern us somewhat is that support for them will certainly intensify from centers of power within the European Union and what is often called the American deep state, which want to maintain the current situation in BiH and preserve a potential flashpoint,” Pavić claimed.
He specifically mentioned Brussels, Berlin, London and Democrats in the U.S. Congress as political actors he believes could continue supporting Sarajevo’s positions.
Pavić argued that these international forces have difficulty accepting Republika Srpska’s political and institutional position.
He concluded by expressing confidence in Republika Srpska’s ability to withstand future political pressure.
“But if we have ever been prepared, it is now. We are more prepared than at any point in the past several decades, largely thanks to the policies pursued in Republika Srpska and the results of these elections,” Pavić said.
Source: RTRS
