This year’s parliamentary elections in Hungary bring a level of uncertainty the country has not experienced for nearly two decades. Voters are not choosing only between the ruling Fidesz and the opposition party TISZA Party, nor only between sovereigntist Viktor Orbán and his challenger Péter Magyar. They are also deciding in which direction the country will move—whether it will maintain its current level of independence or become a more compliant member of European political structures.
In Brussels the elections are viewed as an opportunity to normalize relations with Budapest, particularly regarding sanctions policy and relations with Russia. At the same time, observers note that United States is closely monitoring the campaign, with signals of support for Orbán in diplomatic contacts. The recent visit of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and an agreement on nuclear cooperation were interpreted by some analysts as an indication of Washington’s interest in the political direction of Hungary.
According to geopolitical analyst Vladimir Prebiračević, Hungary today stands at a crossroads between sovereignty-focused policies and a more integrated liberal European model.
“Europe is doing everything it can to undermine Orbán. Brussels has long been involved in different forms of reshaping the will of voters. We have seen what happened in Romania, Moldova, and Georgia. Significant funds have been invested to secure governments that are more compliant,” Prebiračević told Glas Srpske.
He added that pressure is applied in multiple forms—political, financial, and economic—and pointed to the withholding of certain funds from the European Union as well as energy pressures related to the Druzhba pipeline.
Prebiračević argues that Orbán’s independent approach is precisely what causes tension with EU institutions, while at the same time the Hungarian leader enjoys support from parts of the Hungarian diaspora in Serbia and maintains working relations with both Western and Eastern partners.
On the other side of the political spectrum stands Péter Magyar, leader of the TISZA party, whom analysts see as advocating closer alignment with Brussels and broader involvement of European institutions in Hungary’s internal reforms.
NGOs and Soros
Critics of Magyar claim that several non-governmental organizations linked to foundations associated with George Soros support his political bloc. According to some analysts, this raises questions about the level of independence of such political projects and their orientation toward domestic versus international political priorities.
Prebiračević believes that a new victory for Orbán and Fidesz in the elections scheduled for April 12 would have significant consequences not only for Hungary but also for Republika Srpska and Serbia. In his view, it would also strengthen sovereigntist political movements across Europe, including in Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, and even Germany, where the Alternative for Germany has been gaining support.
A similar view is expressed by geopolitical analyst Predrag Rajić, who argues that an Orbán defeat would have major consequences for the region.
“We have no better friend in the EU than Orbán. He is clearly supportive of Serb political interests—not only in Serbia but also in Republika Srpska. If Hungary’s policy changed, the relationship between Budapest and Banja Luka would likely change as well,” Rajić said.
He also noted that Hungary’s electoral system—which combines majoritarian and proportional elements—still favors Fidesz because of its strong local organization and network of candidates.
Counterbalance in Europe
Political analyst Aleksandar Pavić said Hungary has been one of the most consistent critics of current NATO and EU policies toward Russia.
“For that reason, enormous resources are being invested from Brussels and other European centers of power to remove Orbán, who is seen as a key opponent of efforts to turn the EU into a bastion of globalism,” Pavić said.
He believes Orbán remaining in power would be important for maintaining political balance in the region and within the EU.
Allegations of political coordination
An investigative article published by the portal The Grayzone claims that as early as 2019 a senior EU official prepared a project to coordinate opposition to Orbán’s government. The report mentioned Márton Benedek, who allegedly proposed creating a permanent forum linking political, union, and civic groups to coordinate political actions against the government, including involvement in election processes.
According to the article by British journalist Kit Klarenberg, documents suggested efforts to bring pro-European opposition parties to power in Hungary through coordinated political activity.
Source: Glas Srpske
