Republika Srpska has entered calmer political waters after the early presidential election, where—despite not being a candidate—Milorad Dodik effectively scored the victory the people wanted, assessed Professor Emeritus Nenad Kecmanović.
In his op-ed for Politika, Kecmanović wrote that Siniša Karan won the presidency, but that Republika Srpska’s neighbors have “received two Dodiks”, who will roll up their sleeves so that the margin of victory in 2026 is at least twice as large.
He noted that anyone who believes the margin was small should observe reactions in “nearby Sarajevo,” where the result is seen as overwhelming.
Kecmanović wrote that until last week many suspected Dodik had miscalculated when he agreed to step back from the presidential post, but it became clear he has effectively retained the levers of power.
According to him, Dodik demonstrated political wisdom and skillful maneuvering. It is therefore not surprising, he added, that U.S. President Donald Trump chose Republika Srpska as the place to “restore America’s image” after the Democratic administrations embodied by the Clinton–Obama–Biden triangle and the influence of Madeleine Albright.
Kecmanović also pointed to Bosniak political actors who refused to respond to Dodik’s latest initiative — to return Bosnia and Herzegovina to the original Dayton framework, reach a new agreement, or agree on a peaceful separation. Based on this, he concluded that no meaningful deal can be made with them because they simply do not want dialogue.
He believes Trump will pressure Bosniak representatives in Bosnia and Herzegovina — who have so far rejected every invitation to talks — as well as Ukrainians, to sit at the same table with Dodik and HDZ leader Dragan Čović and finally begin a dialogue.
Kecmanović added that Christian Schmidt, dismissed in practice by all three major powers and by all three sides in Bosnia and Herzegovina, appears unwilling to leave the OHR building in Sarajevo “until EUFOR soldiers escort him out.”
He wrote that residents of Sarajevo, in response to Schmidt’s “unmatched absurdities” that have pushed the country to the brink of “a second half of a civil war,” have coined the verb “schmitovanje,” meaning “the systematic production of dangerous nonsense.”
Source: RTRS
