There is no real danger that EUFOR forces will take part in the arrest of Republika Srpska’s leadership, as any attack on the President of Republika Srpska would be a trigger for conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, said Predrag Ćeranić, Dean of the Faculty of Security in Banja Luka.
Ćeranić clarified that EUFOR has not received reinforcements, but that the recent troop rotations were misrepresented as an increase in forces.
He also noted that helicopter exercises should be viewed as part of the ongoing pressure on Republika Srpska, emphasizing that EUFOR assisting in the arrest of Srpska’s leadership is an unrealistic scenario.
- “I don’t believe that threat is realistic, although some in Sarajevo and certain figures in the international community may wish for it,” Ćeranić told Sputnik.
Washington and NATO will not allow new conflicts in BiH
Ćeranić also pointed out that Washington, particularly former President Donald Trump, as well as NATO, will not allow new conflicts in BiH.
- “Any attack on the President of Republika Srpska would be a trigger for conflict in BiH,” he said, adding that Republika Srpska is already facing hybrid warfare.
He explained that any use of international forces would require NATO’s approval, meaning Washington’s decision. In his view, Trump would be more likely to send a mediator to resolve the political crisis through negotiations rather than resort to military intervention.
- “Trump is focused on the Middle East and protecting Israel, as well as on ending the war in Ukraine. From a geopolitical standpoint, the chances of a foreign intervention to arrest President Milorad Dodik are minimal, and this entire narrative is part of a special or hybrid war,” Ćeranić said.
He classified recent (dis)information, including reports that BiH’s Intelligence and Security Agency (OSA) is developing an arrest plan for President Dodik, with a special unit of 30 police officers from Una-Sana Canton and SIPA forces in Bihać, as completely unrealistic.
- “An operation like this would trigger a new civil war in BiH, as it would further unify the Serbs around Dodik’s political vision. While there may have been divisions in the past, this would bring complete unity around his leadership,” Ćeranić emphasized.
MUP Republika Srpska will protect its president
Furthermore, Ćeranić stated that Republika Srpska’s Ministry of Internal Affairs (MUP) is determined to protect its president and will stand its ground.
- “The capabilities of MUP forces are highly respected. The Special Anti-Terrorist Unit (SAJ) requires only 18 minutes to mobilize and execute an operation after an alert is issued,” he revealed.
He reiterated that any attempt to arrest President Dodik would meet resistance from police forces, which is well known, and added that casualties could occur in such a scenario, which does not serve the interests of the countries whose troops are stationed in BiH.
- “Therefore, a thorough risk assessment will be conducted before any intervention, weighing potential gains against the significant risks,” Ćeranić noted.
He also revealed that President Dodik is scheduled to travel soon and will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after which, he believes, the situation will become much clearer.
Additionally, he suggested that the EU has already begun diverging from U.S. policies regarding Ukraine.
Source: RTRS
