Political analyst from Washington, Obrad Kesić, believes that Serbia and Republika Srpska are in a better position with the election of Donald Trump as the new U.S. President and anticipates a reduction in EU pressure on them.
Kesić highlighted that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a friend of both Republika Srpska and Serbia, is also an important partner of Trump in Europe and has supported Republika Srpska during Biden’s administration, which sought to suppress it.
“We can expect a positive stance from Trump towards Republika Srpska and Serbia because they were the only ones in Europe consistently advocating for peace in Ukraine, while the EU essentially pushed for the continuation of war. With Trump’s arrival, the narrative of peace becomes central, which will consequently reduce EU pressure on Serbia and Srpska,” Kesić assessed.
Kesić also pointed out that during Trump’s first term, the U.S. National Security Council introduced ideas about territorial divisions, so reopening the issue of border changes in the Western Balkans would not be surprising.
He noted that there is already pressure in the U.S. to revoke Biden’s sanctions on Serbia’s oil industry, citing rising oil prices in America and Trump’s promise to resolve the war in Ukraine, which implies lifting sanctions.
“Sanctions cannot hold, and I expect this issue to be resolved relatively quickly. Trump can simply revoke them, especially those related to national security,” Kesić told Večernje novosti.
Addressing the Kosovo and Metohija issue and sanctions imposed by the previous U.S. administration, Kešić explained that this region would not be a priority for Trump’s administration. However, he emphasized that with Trump’s ally Richard Grenell’s involvement, Belgrade has become America’s main partner in the Western Balkans.
“Pristina has lost its favored status, which didn’t sit well with Serbia’s neighbors either. Serbia is now in an even better position because Grenell has secured an important role in the new administration, overseeing crisis regions,” Kesić said.
He added that authorities in Pristina are hoping Trump won’t immediately focus on this part of the world, which is why they are rushing with soft ethnic cleansing of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija.
“If Grenell becomes involved, it will signal a shift of momentum toward Belgrade. Things are changing in favor of Serbia and Republika Srpska. Grenell’s presence in the region could accelerate developments, altering the balance of power in negotiations,” Kešić explained.
Kesić expects Trump to annul Biden’s executive orders upon taking office, strengthen border security, deport illegal migrants, protect American energy companies, and resume the Keystone XL pipeline project. He also anticipates administrative downsizing and tax reductions.
Kesić foresees Trump clashing with Europe over economic policies, confronting China over tariffs, reducing financial aid to Ukraine, and increasing support for Israel. He noted that NATO lacks majority support for Ukraine’s membership and views the chances of the U.S. leaving NATO as slim.
Source: RTRS
